Official PMI falls to five-month low

Slide in domestic, overseas demand adds to slowing trend

China's official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to a five-month low in October, missing market estimates and showing that the economy still faces pressure, analysts said over the weekend.

The PMI, a gauge of performance in the manufacturing industry, fell to 50.8 in October from 51.1 in September, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Saturday. The October reading was 0.9 points lower than a yearly peak of 51.7 in July,

A PMI reading above 50 indicates growth, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

China's economy still faces downturn risks, with demand waning in what is normally a strong period for sales, according to a research report released Saturday by the Bank of Communications.

It's the first time in three years that China's official manufacturing PMI has fallen in October, which has traditionally been regarded as a high season for sales.

A Reuters poll released Thursday predicted that the official PMI would edge up to 51.2 in October from September's 51.1, based on the median estimate from 24 economists.

HSBC's final October PMI reading for the manufacturing sector - which looks more at small and medium-sized enterprises than the SOE-focused official PMI - is scheduled to be released on Monday.

The preliminary HSBC PMI data for last month came out on October 23, and registered a three-month high of 50.4.

A research report e-mailed to the Global Times on Sunday by Everbright Securities attributed the drop in the official manufacturing PMI to a slowdown in domestic and overseas demand, which was also reflected by the fall in the sub-index for new orders.

The sub-index for new orders fell to 51.6 in October from 52.2 in September, hitting a six-month low, according to the official data.

Other economic data released in the past month has also pointed to weakening growth, including a slowdown in the growth of fixed-assets investment and a decline in the real estate market, Zhang Liqun, a macroeconomics researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, told the Global Times on Sunday.

According to data from the NBS, fixed-assets investment increased by 16.1 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters, down 4.1 percentage points from growth in the same period last year.

In addition, the growth of investment in real estate slowed down to 12.5 percent year-on-year in the first nine months, down from 19.7 percent in the same period last year.

Besides, due to the decline in external demand, small businesses are focusing more on how to survive, rather than how to develop, Zhou Dewen, president of the Wenzhou Council for the Promotion of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises, told the Global Times on Sunday.

The profit margin for these firms has fallen to 1-3 percent from a range of 8-12 percent before the global financial crisis, Zhou said.

According to official data, the PMI for small enterprises fell from 48.6 last month to 48.5 in October, and the PMI for medium-sized enterprises dropped from 50.0 to 49.1, the lowest point this year.

China's GDP increased by 7.3 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, the slowest growth in nearly six years, the data from the NBS showed.

However, the downtrend will be arrested in the near future due to stimulus policies launched by the central government as well as local governments, Zhang said.

China's central bank launched a new policy on September 30 to ease controls on housing loans, and several cities started policies canceling home purchase restrictions.