Trade growth slows to eight-month low

China's foreign trade growth in November came in at the lowest level since March, customs data showed Monday, making it hard for the country to achieve its annual target.

The weak data was released ahead of China's annual Central Economic Work Conference, which is expected to start Tuesday. Analysts believe policymakers will cut the country's economic growth target for 2015 to about 7.0 percent, down from 7.5 percent for 2014.

In November, exports rose 4.7 percent year-on-year, falling from an 11.6 percent increase in October, the General Administration of Customs (GAC) data showed.

Imports declined by 6.7 percent in November from a year earlier, following a 4.6 percent increase in October.

The weak data dragged China's foreign trade growth in the January-November period to 3.4 percent year-on-year, well below the country's annual target of 7.5 percent for 2014.

The GAC attributed the decline in imports to a downturn in commodity prices.

"The import prices of several main commodities generally fell, while the quantity of imports continued rising," the GAC said in a press release e-mailed to the Global Times on Monday.

According to data from the GAC, the global prices of commodities including iron ore, crude oil and soybeans fell sharply recently. For instance, the import price of iron ore fell 21.4 percent year-on-year in the first 11 months, while the quantity of iron ore imports grew 13.4 percent year-on-year in the same period.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) warned that China's economy is still facing a dip in demand.

"Although the weak domestic demand was reflected in China's November official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released on December 1, the decline in imports [was still greater than] market expectations," it said in a research note sent to the Global Times on Monday.

The official PMI fell to an eight-month low of 50.3 in November, down from October's 50.8, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics.

The recovery of demand in the US and EU markets gave a slight push for China's exports in November, Liu Xuezhi, an analyst with the Bank of Communications, told the Global Times Monday.

But Liu said the boost would not be that significant, adding that there are various factors affecting exports, such as the fact that some foreign-funded enterprises have begun to move their operations out of China.

Samsung Group, South Korea's largest conglomerate, announced it would spend $1.4 billion to build a factory in Vietnam to make electronic household utensils, the Xinhua News Agency reported in September.

Foreign-funded enterprises, many of which initially entered China to take advantage of the country's relatively cheap labor, have recently been accelerating the process of shifting their operations from China to Southeast Asian countries with even lower labor costs, which may affect the growth of China's exports, Liu said.

In the first 11 months, exports from foreign-funded enterprises grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year, down from 2.1 percent growth in the same period last year, according to data from the GAC.

Exports have long been a key driving force for China's economic growth, but foreign trade growth is expected to contribute below 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth this year, a situation that will not improve dramatically next year, according to Liu.

Nomura Securities said in a research note e-mailed to the Global Times Monday that China may lower its 2015 target for GDP growth to 7.0 percent from 7.5 percent in 2014 during the Central Economic Work Conference.

According to a statement released after a meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee held Friday, China will continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy in 2015.

The GDP growth rate may be slightly above 7.0 percent in 2015, Zhang Liqun, a researcher with the Development Research Center of the State Council, told the Global Times on Monday. Zhang also forecast that exports could increase by 7 percent year-on-year in 2015.