1. Friday May 25, 2018
      Home > News > Economy
      Text:| Print|

      Moderate growth rate

      2012-08-23 09:27 China Daily     Web Editor: Mo Hong'e comment

      Excessive economic growth will only harm the labor market, leading to rises in pay and the price of agricultural products.

      Predictably, opinions about the Chinese economy varied after it was announced that the country's GDP increased at a rate of 7.6 percent in the second quarter of the year. Optimists said the rate was even better than expected. Pessimists, though, claimed it was a sign that the Chinese economy is in danger of having a hard landing.

      For my part, I believe that a growth rate of 9 percent is a little high for China, that 8 percent is desirable, and, if the rate slows down to 7 percent, that's not a "big deal".

      Recently, the International Monetary Fund again altered its predictions for the economies of most countries in the world, saying it expects them to grow at a slower pace than it had previously forecast. As the effects of the eurozone crisis linger, many governments continue to be burdened by colossal debts. Meanwhile, the so-called fiscal cliff in the US - a combination of tax increases and spending reductions expected to result in a slowing of the country's economy - has raised many uncertainties.

      As a result of this economic turbulence, emerging markets around the globe have seen their economic growth decelerate remarkably. China is also undergoing a readjustment in its real estate market.

      If we are to prevent the current real estate bubble from expanding and avoid disaster, we need to ensure that the market has a soft landing.

      Yet, we shouldn't forget that, if we really want to regulate the housing industry, we'll simply have to swallow the resulting economic slowdown. As everyone knows, you can't have your cake and eat it too. It's unreasonable to think one can see a simultaneous decrease in house prices and acceleration in economic growth.

      We should also keep an eye on inflation, of which between 70 and 80 percent in China stems from increases in food prices. Recently, the US has been suffering from its worst drought in 25 years and the UK from its worst in 30 years. France has decided to restrict the use of water on almost a third of its land and Germany, which is the source of the second largest amount of wheat among all European countries, has been forced to lower its wheat production by 10 percent. A recent article in the newspaper Financial Times said the world economy is at risk from inflating food prices.

      Some contend we should combat unemployment by maintaining a high rate of economic growth. Yet, labor remains in short supply in the country.

      In these circumstances, excessive economic growth will only lead to wage increases and greater shortages in the labor supply. That, in turn, will drive the price of Chinese agricultural products upward.

      No matter how one looks at the situation, then, it's nearly impossible to expect economic growth to proceed at an extremely fast pace this year.

      As long as the country's growth rate for the second half of the year is above 8 percent, we can guarantee that GDP growth will likewise proceed at a rate of 8 percent for all of 2012. In 2011, China's total GDP was 46 trillion yuan ($7.24 trillion). Starting from that base, we need to only increase our economic growth rate by 0.5 percentage point, or 120 billion yuan, to achieve that target of 8 percent. If monetary policy could be loosened a bit to encourage investment in fixed assets, such an increase would not be difficult to obtain. There is thus no reason to adopt policies that will intervene greatly in the economy.

      Some people still hope China will drive world economic growth. These same people are also often the ones who make a fuss whenever the slightest signs of an economic slowdown appear in China, often seeing them as portending a "hard landing". Yet, they seem to have no clear understanding of what a hard landing is. Is it negative growth, zero growth or growth at a rate of 4 percent? People with the least amount of common sense know that a hard landing in China is very unlikely at this time. If they contend that a growth rate of 7 percent portends a hard landing, they will be uttering one of the most absurd things I've ever heard.

      Amid the world economic downturn, China has no capacity or obligation to save the world economy. The country has done well simply by fulfilling its responsibility to maintain a growth rate of between 7 and 8 percent.

      Looking forward, we should not expect to see the return of a double-digit growth rate. As a result of a series of policies, coupled with reforms related to the distribution of income, workers' pay is expected to increase more quickly.

      If we don't make prudent adjustments to monetary policy, inflation will be the result. That, in turn, will hinder economic development.

      Furthermore, a loose macroeconomy can leave more room for future structural reforms. Therefore, in my opinion, a growth rate of 9 percent is a little high for China, 8 percent is desirable, and if growth slows down to 7 percent, that's still not a "big deal".

      The author is counselor of the State Council, executive vice-chairperson and president of YouChange University.

      Comments (0)

      Copyright ©1999-2011 Chinanews.com. All rights reserved.
      Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.

      主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲国产高清美女在线观看| 国产精品偷伦视频观看免费| 黄色a级片免费看| 日韩视频在线精品视频免费观看| 国产大片线上免费看| 亚洲AV无码一区二区三区牛牛| 嫖丰满老熟妇AAAA片免费看| 亚洲另类春色国产精品| 成人无码精品1区2区3区免费看 | 99爱在线精品免费观看| 亚洲一级特黄大片无码毛片| 特a级免费高清黄色片| 亚洲国产一区视频| 亚洲人精品亚洲人成在线| 无人影院手机版在线观看免费| tom影院亚洲国产一区二区| 一级一级一级毛片免费毛片| 久久久精品国产亚洲成人满18免费网站 | 亚洲AV永久无码精品一福利 | 日本人的色道免费网站| 亚洲色图黄色小说| 成年女人18级毛片毛片免费 | 不卡一卡二卡三亚洲| 毛片在线全部免费观看| 亚洲国产成人精品青青草原| 青青草国产免费久久久下载| 一级女性全黄生活片免费看| 西西人体44rt高清亚洲| 最好免费观看高清在线| 亚洲天堂电影在线观看| 日韩中文字幕免费| 亚洲一区二区三区丝袜| 青春禁区视频在线观看直播免费| 亚洲av成人中文无码专区| 中文字幕精品亚洲无线码一区| 日韩国产精品亚洲а∨天堂免| 国产亚洲成归v人片在线观看| 久久国产色AV免费看| 久久精品亚洲日本波多野结衣| 在线亚洲精品自拍| 无码国产精品一区二区免费I6|