1. LINE

      Text:AAAPrint
      Voices

      Current climate treaties a lot of hot air

      1
      2015-11-30 08:41China Daily Editor: Wang Fan

      Paris is hosting the 21st global climate conference, and there are high hopes that negotiators will agree on a carbon-cutting treaty. But adding up the climate effects and costs of carbon-cutting commitments shows that there is something very wrong with this approach. [Special coverage]

      In a peer-reviewed research paper, I looked at the promises governments have committed to ahead of Paris (their so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions) for the years 2016-2030. These are what the global treaty will be based on.

      By running this data through internationally recognized climate models, I found that the promises will cut global temperatures by just 0.05 degrees Celsius by 2100.China's contribution would be a 0.014 Creduction by 2100.

      I also explored a far more optimistic, much less likely scenario. What if every government not only keeps every Paris promise but also shifts no emissions to other countries and keeps these reductions throughout the rest of the century? In that artificial scenario, temperatures will be reduced by just 0.17 C by 2100(with China contributing 0.048 C).

      The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change claims "the INDCs have the capability of limiting the forecast temperature rise to around 2.7 C by 2100". This is advocacy, not science. It essentially assumes governments will do relatively little in Paris, but right after 2030 will embark on much more ambitious climate reductions.

      Let us get back to reality. What will it cost to cut global temperatures by so little?

      We can add up the price tags for the Paris promises submitted by the United States, the European Union, Mexico and China, which account for about 80 percent of pledged reductions.

      The US promises to cut greenhouse gas emissions 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025. Data from the peer-reviewed Stanford Energy Modeling Forum shows hitting the target would reduce GDP between $154 billion and $172 billion annually. The EU's promise-to cut emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030-would reduce GDP by 1.6 percent in 2030, or 287 billion ($305.68 billion) in terms of the value in 2010.Mexico's conditional promise to cut greenhouse gas and black carbon emissions by 40 percent below the current trend line would reach 4.5 percent of GDP by 2030.

      China has promised to cut how much carbon dioxide it emits for every yuan by 60-65 percent by 2030. China's last promise for 2020 of an intensity cut of 40-45 percent was relatively light-it would probably have been achieved without any additional policies. It would be a mistake to assume that the 2030 target will be as easy. Studies by the Asian Modeling Exercise suggest that a 60 percent cut could cost about $200 billion annually in lost GDP growth.

      And living up to the Paris climate promise of peaking CO2 emissions around 2030 could easily cost China $400 billion or more in lost GDP.

      So the promises of the EU, Mexico, the US and China will diminish the global economy by at least $730 billion a year by 2030-and that is in an ideal world, where all the globe's politicians consistently reduce emissions most efficiently. If politicians make less efficient decisions, history shows costs could double.

      Factoring in the other 122 nations, this treaty will leave the global economy worse off by about $1 trillion dollars every year for the rest of the century-and that is if the world's politicians do everything right.

      China knows cheap and plentiful power is crucial. Over 30 years it has lifted 680 million people out of poverty-more than any nation ever in history-and this has been powered by cheap coal. In a new report, the International Energy Agency estimates that China gets just 0.02 percent of its energy from electric solar cells and 0.3 percent from wind. Despite the total energy from solar and wind increasing more than 13-fold, China will still get just 3 percent from solar and wind in 2040.

      Power is one of the most crucial inputs for poverty eradication so it is crucial for China to continue to focus on getting more power at low costs. The real solution to climate change will come from investing much more in research and development into green energy sources, in order to make the likes of solar and wind more efficient and able to compete with fossil fuels.

      Until then, climate treaties will just be hot air.

      The author, Bjorn Lomborg, is director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center and visiting professor at Copenhagen Business School.

        

      Related news

      MorePhoto

      Most popular in 24h

      MoreTop news

      MoreVideo

      News
      Politics
      Business
      Society
      Culture
      Military
      Sci-tech
      Entertainment
      Sports
      Odd
      Features
      Biz
      Economy
      Travel
      Travel News
      Travel Types
      Events
      Food
      Hotel
      Bar & Club
      Architecture
      Gallery
      Photo
      CNS Photo
      Video
      Video
      Learning Chinese
      Learn About China
      Social Chinese
      Business Chinese
      Buzz Words
      Bilingual
      Resources
      ECNS Wire
      Special Coverage
      Infographics
      Voices
      LINE
      Back to top Links | About Us | Jobs | Contact Us | Privacy Policy
      Copyright ©1999-2018 Chinanews.com. All rights reserved.
      Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.
      主站蜘蛛池模板: 亚洲无限乱码一二三四区| 亚洲人成无码久久电影网站| 怡红院亚洲怡红院首页| 偷自拍亚洲视频在线观看99| 免费看男女下面日出水来| 日本亚洲欧洲免费天堂午夜看片女人员| 麻豆安全免费网址入口| 香蕉视频在线观看免费国产婷婷| 亚洲色图校园春色| 毛片免费全部播放无码| 亚洲av日韩av不卡在线观看| 最近更新免费中文字幕大全| 亚洲精品午夜无码电影网| 亚洲国产免费综合| 国内精品99亚洲免费高清| 成人无码视频97免费| 精品国产人成亚洲区| 四虎国产精品成人免费久久| 国产亚洲美女精品久久久| 一级一黄在线观看视频免费| 亚洲国产精品综合久久网络| 一级日本高清视频免费观看| 亚洲国产激情一区二区三区| 一级毛片免费一级直接观看| 亚洲成A∨人片在线观看不卡| 久久久久免费看黄a级试看| 亚洲av福利无码无一区二区| aⅴ免费在线观看| 亚洲国产日韩精品| 国产99视频精品免费视频7| 欧亚一级毛片免费看| 亚洲色精品88色婷婷七月丁香| 三年片在线观看免费| 亚洲视频.com| 在线看免费观看AV深夜影院| 亚洲精品伦理熟女国产一区二区| 久久精品蜜芽亚洲国产AV| 免费人成网站永久| 国产精品久久亚洲一区二区| 国产精品亚洲片在线va| 日韩视频在线免费|